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Caribbean Climate Scenarios
There is global consensus that there is a growing need to understand how climate is changing and to predict future change on local and regional scales. While significant improvements have been made to Global Circulation Models (GCMs) even for the highest resolution GCMs with a grid size of typically 100 – 500 km, the spatial resolution is still too coarse to resolve the fine-scale heterogeneity of climate variability and change on a local level. Mountains, topography and components of the climate system such as convective clouds, coastal breezes and complex orographic processes, have scales much finer than 100 – 500 km and are not well-captured by these models. Consequently, regional climate models and downscaling approaches are used to overcome this. Statistical downscaling involves the establishment of empirical relationships between historical and/or current large-scale atmospheric and local climate variables, which are then used to predict future local climate variables at a higher resolution. Spatial downscaling involves the derivation of finer resolution spatial climate information from coarser-resolution GCM output or a specific location. Temporal disaggregation involves the derivation of high frequency data from low frequency data. Caribbean Climate Scenarios illustrates possible scenarios of future climate under two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP45 and RCP85. A 30-year historical precipitation record based on a complete national rain gauge network was used by the CCI to develop statistically downscaled climate projections. Datasets are available up to the year 2100 and available upon request. This will be an interactive and publicly accessible platform for visualisation of future and future anomalies in rainfall and temperature patterns. This data will be useful for persons with an interest in climate change and persons wishing to engage in climate change research.
Rainfall and Temperature: RCP 45, RCP 85

Rainfall projections under the RCP 45 scenario. Click edit button to change this text. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut elit tellus, luctus nec ullamcorper mattis, pulvinar dapibus leo. Rainfall projections under the RCP 45 scenario. Click edit button to change this text.

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Rainfall projections under the RCP 85 scenario. Click edit button to change this text. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut elit tellus, luctus nec ullamcorper mattis, pulvinar dapibus leo. Rainfall projections under the RCP 45 scenario. Rainfall projections under the RCP45

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Temperature projections under the RCP 45 scenario. Click edit button to change this text. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut elit tellus, luctus nec ullamcorper mattis, pulvinar dapibus leo. Rainfall projections under the RCP 45 scenario. Click edit button to change this text.

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Temperature projections under the RCP 85 scenario. Click edit button to change this text. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut elit tellus, luctus nec ullamcorper mattis, pulvinar dapibus leo. Rainfall

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